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1H17 behind; new energy bus sales pick-up in sight

www.eastmoney.com 德意志银行 Fei Sun,Vincent Ha,Yuki Lu

  宇通客车(600066)

  H17 not a surprise; 35% net profit decline on 27% sales volume drop

  Ytong Bus reported 34.8% YoY 1H17 net profit decline to RMB805.1m. Thecompany’s 1H17 revenue decreased by 29.8% YoY to RMB9.3bn on the back of26.7% YoY decrease in bus sales volume to 21,828 units. Yutong’s 1H17 net profitaccounted for 20% of our original FY17 earnings forecasts and 21% of consensus.Although the result is lower than Yutong’s recent year performance (1H16 netprofit accounted for 31% of FY16 profit and 1H15 27% of FY15), we believe itbrings no surprises to the market given weak 1H17 NEV bus sales.

  De to the product mix shift with decline in sales contribution from new energybuses and partially offset by reduction in procurement costs, in our view, grossprofit margin contracted merely by 26bps YoY to 24.2% in 1H17. Meanwhile,operating profit margin narrowed by 2.1ppt YoY on 1.9ppt YoY expansion in SG&Aexpenses ratio.

  Wth a 55.7% decline in non-operating income, partially mitigated by 1)RMB39.5m gain on a change in fair value (vs. loss of RMB44.8m in 1H16) mainlyfrom financial assets; 2) RMB75.0m investment gain (up 1.7x YoY) due to highercontribution from JV/associates; and 3) 72.5% YoY decline in impairment loss onassets, 1H17 net profit margin decreased 67bps to 8.6%.

  On a quarterly basis, Yutong’s 2Q17 revenue declined 33.1% YoY but improved40.7% QoQ to RMB5.4bn. Gross profit margin remained flattish YoY and expanded1.6ppt QoQ to 24.8%. 2Q17 net profit dropped 42.9% YoY but increased 54.6%QoQ to RMB488.8m.

  Dutsche Bank view – new energy bus demand to recover; maintain Buy

  e cut our FY17-19E revenue estimates by 8.9-13.6% and net profit by13.1-14.5% mainly on reduced NEV bus sales forecast. Meanwhile, we forecaststable NEV gross margins for Yutong going forward, on cost reduction andbetter mix mitigating cuts in subsidies, leading to consistent c.60% gross profitcontribution from the NEV bus business.

  W believe the NEV bus demand will continue to recover on the clarificationof some local government subsidy and new subsidy eligibility list. MaintainBuy given our optimism on Yutong's increasing profit contribution from NEVbus segment. Target price is based on 14x FY18E P/E (rolled forward from 14xFY17E P/E), c.30% above Yutong's mid-cycle P/E of 11x to reflect our optimism

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宇通客车基本面数据
  • 总股本 22.14亿股
  • 流通股 22.14亿股
  • 每股收益 0.31元
  • 每股未分配利润 4.15元
  • 每股净资产 6.89元
  • 净资产收益率 4.17%
  • 净利润 68298.22万
  • 净利润增长率 10.78%
宇通客车投资评级
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三个月内 5 14 0 0 0 19
半年内 8 20 0 0 0 28
一年内 14 33 1 0 0 48
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数据来源:东方财富Choice数据

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