1Q24 net profit +40% YoY in line; solid growth outlook

　　潍柴动力(000338)

　　While Weichai Power (Weichai)’s revenue growth of 6% YoY in 1Q24 is belowour expectation, net profit of RMB2.6bn (+40% YoY) accounted for 21.4% of ourfull-year estimates (run rate in 1Q23: 20.5%), which is still in line with ourexpectation. The earnings growth was driven by margin expansion on both corebusiness and KION Group (KGX GR, NR). We maintain Weichai as our sectortop pick, given (1) the large gas/diesel price gap will continue to drive naturalgas engine demand, where Weichai has >60% market share in; (2) high-speedlarge-bore engines will serve as a structural growth driver on the back ofconstruction of more data centres. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP ofHK$22/RMB20.4 for Weichai H/A.

　　1Q24 results highlights. Weichai’s revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB56.4bn.Gross margin expanded 3.4ppt YoY to 22.1% in 1Q24. With limited increasein SG&A and R&D expense ratio, the pre-tax profit surged 58% YoY toRMB4.2bn. Based on our calculation, the pretax profit of Weichai’s corebusiness / KION grew 45% / 93% YoY in 1Q24 (in RMB terms). Operatingcash flow in 1Q24 substantially improved to RMB1.6bn, vs outflow ofRMB471mn in 1Q23.

　　Margin recovery of KION Group. KION (46.5% owned by Weichai)reported adjusted EBIT of EUR227mn in 1Q24 (+46% YoY), driven byeasing cost pressure. KION guided a full-year adjusted EBIT target ofEUR790-940mn (up 0-19% YoY).

　　Weichai’s engine sales outpaced industry in 1Q24. According toCICEIA, Weichai's multi-cylinder sales (HDT, construction machinery, otherengines) grew 13% YoY to 206k units in 1Q24 (vs the industry average of adecline of ~1%), with market share of ~18% (+2.3ppt YoY).

　　Risk factors: 1) weakness in engine exports; 2) lower-than-expectedreplacement demand; 3) an increase in component costs.