PCB outperformed CCL in 3Q; margin improved sequentially
生益科技(600183)
Shengyi Tech announced3Q24results.Revenue was RMB5.1bn,up14.5%YoY but down1.7%QoQ,in-line with Bloomberg consensus.GPM was22.9%,up1.1ppts from2Q24,benefitting from favourable product mix and loweredmaterial costs.NP was RMB440mn,up27.8%YoY but down18.6%QoQ.NPMlowered to8.6%(vs.10.4%in2Q24).Bottom line missed Bloomberg consensusby26%,mainly due to SBC cost of RMB150mn(~2.9%of revenue).Lookingforward,we expect Shengyi’s revenue to grow at20%/16%YoY in2024/25E,with improved margin at22.1%/23.6%.Maintain BUY with adjusted TP atRMB28.75(vs.prev.RMB26.41),reflecting rollover25.5x2025E P/E,whichis closed to its3-yr historical forward P/E.
PCB sales grew on strong AI demand.GPM recovered both YoY andQoQ.3Q24PCB revenue was RMB1.2bn,up49.3%YoY and10.8%QoQ.The growth was mainly driven by a significant rise(20.9%YoY in9M24)inserver revenue(42.5%of PCB sales).Overseas market outperformed with32.1%YoY sales increase.GPM recovered to24.9%from20.4%/14.2%in3Q23/2Q24,mainly on favourable revenue mix.NPM rose to7.5%vs.-3.4%/6.4%in3Q23/2Q24.We raise our projection for PCB sales by5%/1%for2024/25E,on quicker-than-expected ramp-up of related products for AIserver market.We expect the segment to grow at35%/20%in2024/25E.
CCL revenue was up YoY but down QoQ(est.5-6%lower),likely onweaker-than-expected demand in non-AI market,which suppresses ASPrecovery.Margin slid sequentially,as copper price remained at its highs(avg.price in3Q24:~US$9.9k/t).But Shengyi managed to offset partialimpact of material cost headwinds with pre-procurement activities.However,this led to an8%QoQ increase(RMB365mn)in inventory.We cutour forecasts for CCL sales by8%/6%for2024/25E,on slower-than-expected market recovery.We expect the segment to grow at14%/15%in2024/25E.
Maintain BUY with adjusted TP at RMB28.75.We slightly revised downour sales/NP estimates by4%/6%for2025E.New TP is based on25.5xrollover2025E P/E,which is close to its3-yr historical forward P/E.Potentialrisks include copper price volatility and weaker-than-expected demandrecovery.
