Transition before turnaround; maintain HOLD
卓胜微(300782)
Maxscend released1H26results.Revenue rose6.2%YoY to RMB1.81bn,while net loss widened to RMB371mn;2Q26revenue reached RMB982mn(+3.6%YoY/+18.7%QoQ),but net loss deepened to RMB226mn,both belowBloomberg consensus.GPM fell12.4ppts to16.4%,as low fab loading,depreciation,pricing pressure and module ramp costs overwhelmed miximprovement.Maxscend is simultaneously digesting legacy inventory,executing its Fab-Lite transition and pivoting toward optical interconnect.Withdemand recovery uncertain and utilization subdued,we cut FY26E/FY27Erevenue by2.1%/2.4%and GPM by11.7ppts/9.6ppts.Maintain HOLD andlower TP to RMB74.2,based on40x2027E EV/EBITDA,similar to1-SD belowthe historical mean.
Module growth outpaced discrete,but margins lagged.In1H26,RFmodule revenue climbed22.9%YoY to RMB929mn,lifting its sales mix to51%,as L-PAMiD shipments accelerated and Wi-Fi7scaled;Wi-Fi8alsoentered small-volume shipments.In contrast,RF discrete sales fell8.3%YoY to RMB824mn amid soft handset demand and ongoing inventorydigestion.The richer module mix has yet to translate into profitability,asmodule GPM fell15.6ppts to13.1%,while discrete GPM dropped10.5pptsto17.8%.We expect volume growth,yield improvement,greatercustomization and cost-down to underpin a gradual margin recovery.
Fab utilization remains the key earnings swing factor.Xinzhuo Fab’srevenue increased43.8%YoY to RMB694mn in1H26,while its net lossnarrowed to RMB256mn from RMB337mn in1H25.The12-inch fab hasmonthly capacity of9k wafers and has been running at roughly50–60%utilization,per mgmt.,while the6-inch filter line has reached15kwafers/month.Utilization improved from1Q26and should continue rising in2H26,although mgmt.does not expect a high FY26level.We believe adurable turnaround requires both higher loading and better unit economicsthrough yield gains,cost down,and enhanced pricing.
Optical interconnect extends the platform’s runway but also raises theexecution bar.Maxscend is repurposing its SOI and SiGe capabilities foroptical and electrical chips used in AIDCs.First-generation SiGe electrical-chip products are under collaboration,while the SiPho process platform isstill undergoing finalization.The April placement’s RMB3.46bn net proceedsprovide sufficient funding,but customer qualification and volume productionremain distant milestones,in our view.We therefore assign no materialnear-term earnings contribution.Key upside risks include faster utilizationrecovery,stronger L-PAMiD wins or earlier optical validation;key downsiderisks include weak demand,slower qualification,intensifying competition,etc.
