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Soft bus sales continue in November

www.eastmoney.com 2018年12月06日 00:00 麦格理资本 Allen Yuan,Janet Lewis

宇通客车(600066)

Event

Yutong reported November bus wholesale shipment data after the market close on 4 December.

Impact

Soft November sales: Yutong shipped 5,784 buses in November, down 25% YoY. Sales of large buses (2,341 units, -10% YoY) and medium buses (2,596 units, -42% YoY) declined further. Total sales were down 8% YoY to 50,002 units in 11M18. The weakness was mainly due to a continued decline in the demand for conventional buses, especially in the non-urban transit segment. Yutong sold ~3,000 new energy buses (E-buses) in November, down from 4,663 units in November 2017.

What is behind our Neutral rating: 1) assuming 40% and 20% subsidy cuts for E-buses in 2019-20E. The reported subsidy policy (LINK) indicates that there could be an upside with subsidies in 2019; 2) expecting continued weakness in bus demand in 2019, especially in conventional bus space and overseas markets; 3) elevated impairment losses as well as R&D costs duringproduct and technology transition. We would turn more positive on better-thanexpected bus demand, lower-than-expected subsidy cut and higher-thanexpected battery procurement cost cut.

Action and recommendation

We maintain our Neutral rating.

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宇通客车基本面数据
  • 总股本 22.14亿股
  • 流通股 22.14亿股
  • 每股收益 0.14元
  • 每股未分配利润 3.98元
  • 每股净资产 6.72元
  • 净资产收益率 1.85%
  • 净利润 31062.44万
  • 净利润增长率 5.41%
宇通客车投资评级
一月内整体评级
三月内整体评级
统计时段 买入 增持 中性 减持 卖出 合计
一个月内110002
三个月内450009
半年内61000016
一年内161810035
宇通客车盈利预测
指标 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
每股收益(元) 1.04 1.12 1.20 1.30
净利润(亿元) 23.02 24.69 26.48 28.76
名称 涨跌幅 研报数 机构投资评级(近六个月)
买入 增持 中性 减持 卖出
西部资源 10.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0
风神股份 9.98% 0 0 0 0 0 0
新泉股份 2.76% 6 3 3 0 0 0
登云股份 2.61% 0 0 0 0 0 0
迪生力 1.36% 0 0 0 0 0 0
威唐工业 1.34% 0 0 0 0 0 0
奥联电子 1.06% 0 0 0 0 0 0
长安汽车 0.98% 16 10 6 0 0 0
天汽模 0.97% 0 0 0 0 0 0
模塑科技 0.79% 0 0 0 0 0 0
贵州轮胎 0.68% 0 0 0 0 0 0
特尔佳 0.64% 0 0 0 0 0 0
爱柯迪 0.24% 6 4 2 0 0 0
曙光股份 0.21% 0 0 0 0 0 0
继峰股份 0.00% 4 2 2 0 0 0
机构一致看多个股
名称 研报 看多家数 最高
目标价
最低
目标价
现价
贵州茅台详细811239.65686.90947.50
宁德时代详细6099.4555.2871.50
长城汽车详细5910.866.428.27
通威股份详细5117.208.3213.69
伊利股份详细5036.0024.7232.11
三一重工详细5013.868.8013.71
绝味食品详细4748.6232.7636.11
深南电路详细44121.0375.70105.02
高新兴详细4410.456.406.99
中公教育详细4413.230.6913.22
尚品宅配详细4495.7071.7477.00
中顺洁柔详细4312.327.9312.43
隆基股份详细4235.3320.3724.06
中国国旅详细40100.3549.5985.20
比亚迪详细4056.7846.5053.45

数据来源:东方财富Choice数据