Key takeaways from post-results call
恒立液压(601100)
We have several positive takeaways from the post-results call: (1) Loss inMexico operation reduced in 2Q26 (vs 1Q26), and we now forecast the fullyear loss to be ~RMB100mn (i.e. RMB20mn loss in 2H26E); (2) Precisionindustry (excluding ball screw) is expected to turn profitable in 2027E; (3)Demand for hydraulic components for excavators is strong, with potentiallymore order intakes for medium size cylinders for excavators from the majorUS construction machinery customer in 4Q26E; (4) Ball screws forhumanoid robots capacity is on track to reach 100k units in the near term,and is expected to reach 1mn units in 3-5 years, according to the company.We trim our 2026E earnings forecast by 3%, as we incorporated FX loss in1H26 and slightly lower margin assumptions. We maintain our positivestance on Hengli and roll over our TP to RMB132, based on 42x 2027E P/E(previously 48x 2026E P/E). Our target multiple is based on 1SD above thehistorical average to reflect both the upcycle of hydraulic business and thegrowth potential of precision industry business. Hengli remains a key pickin our universe.
Loss in Mexico operation to be further narrowed. Mexico plant isengaged in hydraulic components business at the moment. Based onour understanding, the loss in Mexico plant narrowed to RMB20mn in2Q26 from RMB60mn in 1Q26. We understand that the annualdepreciation expense is ~RMB100mn while the annual operatingexpense is ~RMB40-50mn. Looking forward, we now assume onlyRMB20m loss in 2H26E. We forecast the full-year loss to be~RMB100mn.
Ball screws for humanoid robots. Two production lines in China arein operation at present. Hengli expects higher output in 4Q26E, whilethe growth in 1Q27E will depend on the production schedule of themajor US humanoid robots manufacturer. Hengli’s ball screw capacityis expected to reach 100k units in the near term, and is planned toincrease to 1mn units in 3-5 years.
Precision industry segment (excluding ball screw) to potentiallyturn profitable in 2027E. The downstream applications includesemiconductor and machine tools. For machine tools, Hengli will focusmore on high-end customers (higher margin). For semiconductor,Hengli will focus on import substitution. In terms of capacity, the annualproduction value is expected to reach RMB2bn. We expect the segmentrevenue to double and turn profitable in 2027E.
